本帖最后由 半杯水 于 2014-3-4 14:47 编辑
What Happens if China Widens the Yuan's Trading Band?
人民币交易区间扩大有何影响？
Over the past two weeks, China's yuan has unexpectedly fallen, catching investors and strategists off guard following years of steady gains. The move is stemming from the central bank, which is engineering the fall as part of efforts to prepare the tightly tethered currency for wider trading, The Wall Street Journal has reported. 去两周中国人民币意外下跌，这让投资者和策略师有些猝不及防，因为之前多年人民币一直在稳步上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，人民币的下跌行情由中国央行操控，此举是央行为扩大严格受控的人民币交易范围所做的努力之一。
What happens if China widens the trading band? 如果中国扩大人民币的交易区间，会出现什么情况呢？
It will increase volatility because it gives the yuan more space to move freely and likely introduce more two-way bets. 首先，波动性会增加，因为人民币有了更多自由浮动的空间，而且可能会引发更多双向押注人民币的行为。
Up to now, most market participants believe the yuan would only appreciate -- it has risen 33% since 2005, when China shifted from a decade-old peg against the greenback to a managed floating currency. 到目前为止，大多数市场参与者都认为，人民币只升不降。2005年，中国将维持了10年之久的人民币盯住美元汇率制变为有管理的浮动汇率制。从那时至今，人民币累计上涨了33%。
Investors and speculators will have to think twice before piling into gains as a wider band means the yuan could also fall at a faster rate. 其次，交易区间扩大意味着人民币下跌的速度可能加快，投资者和投机者在纷纷押注人民币上涨之前将需三思。
The consensus by analysts is the band would be doubled to 2% above or below the daily fixed reference rate. 分析人士现在一致认为，人民币汇率波幅将扩大一倍，至中间价上下各2%。
What's happened in the past when China widened the band? 以前中国扩大人民币交易区间后，都出现过什么情况？
The last widening was in April 2012, when the central bank allowed the currency to trade 1% above or below the daily fixing, from the 0.5% range that had been in place since May 2007. 上一次扩大交易区间是在2012年4月，当时中国央行允许人民币围绕每日中间价上下1%波动。此前至2007年5月期间，人民币交易区间在中间价上下0.5%波动。
On the first day of trading after the 2012 band-widening, the currency was stronger and traded toward the stronger side of the band. 2012年交易区间扩大后的首个交易日，人民币走高，价格位于交易区间上端。
Although the People's Bank of China widened the trading range, it continued to fix its daily reference rate stronger, leading the market to believe the intention was an appreciating yuan. Volatility was thus wiped out and analysts note the volatility has been falling since, reaching historic lows up until last week. 因此，人民币汇率的波动性便被“扼杀”。有分析人士指出，2012年以来人民币的波动性逐渐变小，在上周之前达到历史低点。
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