For 2016, Hillary Clinton's Timing Is Everything 希拉里参选总统 拿准时机是关键

For 2016, Hillary Clinton's Timing Is Everything

希拉里参选总统 拿准时机是关键

    A good bet is that Hillary Clinton will enter the 2016 presidential race, and immediately become the prohibitive favorite.

    拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)很有可能参加2016美国总统大选，并立即赢得广大选民的拥戴。

    But think about another scenario for a moment. As 2014 unfolds, Mrs. Clinton gives no signal as to whether she's running for president. Months go by and Mrs. Clinton continues to give paid speeches, write and promote her new book, and assist her husband and daughter with the Clinton Foundation's charitable work. Then, with 2015 fast approaching, she decides for whatever reason she won't seek the Democratic nomination. Stranger things have happened in politics.

    但也存在这样一种可能：随着2014年时间的推移，克林顿始终不就是否参选总统给出明确回答。数月过去，她还是照常应邀做演讲，撰写并宣传新书，协助丈夫和女儿做克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)的慈善工作。2015年转眼将至，她不管出于何种原因最终决定，不会寻求民主党(Democratic Party)党内提名。这样的事情在政坛也不足为奇。

    That would leave the party in quite a hole.

    然而这样的决定将在民主党内留下一个巨大的空洞。

    If Mrs. Clinton opts to sit it out, and doesn't say so until late this year, she'll have left some other prospective Democratic candidates at a competitive disadvantage, some party operatives fear. So far ahead in the polls is Mrs. Clinton at the moment that it's difficult for other Democrats to do the basic preparatory work necessary to mount a serious campaign for the presidency.

    一些民主党谋士认为，如果克林顿按兵不动，在今年年底之前不做任何表示，那么她将使党内的一些潜在候选人处于竞争劣势。目前民调显示克林顿声望极高，这使得其他民主党员很难为参选总统展开必要的准备工作。

    Donors aren't apt to write checks to a Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley or a former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer so long as a Clinton candidacy is on the horizon, one Democratic campaign aide says. And without money, it's tough for second-tier hopefuls to build the campaign machinery needed to be successful in the general election.

    一位民主党竞选助手称，只要克林顿仍然有望参选总统，像马里兰州州长奥马利(Martin O'Malley)或蒙大拿州州长施魏策尔(Brian Schweitzer)这样的人选就很难博得捐款人的青睐。如果没有资金支持，这些“二线”人选就很难为赢得大选建构起必要的竞选工具来。

    'The longer Hillary Clinton takes to make a decision, the more frozen the donor and activist class becomes, ' the aide said. 'It's virtually impossible for any Democrat not named Hillary Clinton to build the base of support they need to mount a credible campaign for president right now.'

    该助手称，克林顿越是拖延决定的时间，募捐者和政治活动人士的行动就会越缓慢。这位人士还说，民主党内其他人选现在几乎不可能构建支持基础，以筹办像样的竞选活动。

    Vice President Joe Biden has a different set of challenges. Americans know who he is, so he doesn't face the same obstacles as say Mr. O'Malley to build name recognition. Mr. Biden said last week he won't make a decision on running until the summer of '15. That extended timetable suggests he'll go a long time before setting up political action committees and outreach efforts that are especially important for candidates like Mr. Biden who are lagging in the polls.

    副总统拜登(Joe Biden)则面临着另一些挑战。他在美国人当中具有知名度，因而无需像奥马利那样为打响名号而犯愁。拜登上周称他在2015年夏天之前不会就是否参选做出决定。对于像拜登这样在民调中落后的人选而言，这一时间的延后可能意味着他要多花时日组建政治行动委员会，并做好必要的宣传工作。

    Mrs. Clinton has said she'll make a decision this year on whether to run.

    而克林顿则说她将在今年就是否参选总统做出决定。

    Her interests are well served by waiting. The moment she declares her candidacy, it's open season on her from conservatives and Republican campaign opposition research specialists. She already has universal name recognition and a stable of outside groups raising money and recruiting grassroots activists in the expectation she'll run.

    等待对她来说非常有利。一旦她宣布参选，保守派人士及共和党的竞选对手研究专家们就要开始向她发起攻势。克林顿已拥有极高的知名度，众多组织正在为她筹款并招募草根运动人士，期待她最终参选。

    So, in that sense, there's no hurry for her to announce her decision.

    如此看来，她没有必要急着宣布自己的决定。

    Unless she decides she owes it to the party to make sure Democrats aren't left flat-footed in the event she stays out.

    如果她决定听从民主党调派，让民主党自己来决定能否承受她本人不参选对该党的冲击，那又是另外一回事。

    One former Clinton campaign aide hopes that if Mrs. Clinton truly isn't going to run, she says so quickly.

    克林顿的一位前任竞选助手称，如果克林顿真不打算参选的话，她就该尽快宣布。

    'If she's not going to run, then it seems to me she ought to make that decision earlier -- as soon as possible -- so that other people can get in and the party isn't standing without viable candidates, ' he said.

    他说：我觉得如果她不想参选，就应该尽快做出决定，越早越好，这样其他人就能够着手准备，民主党就不会出现没有优秀候选人的情况。